Why it’s dangerous to assume Golden State Valkyries can’t compete with Minnesota Lynx

Yet here they are, the No. 8 seed in the WNBA playoffs, facing down yet another assumption: that beating the No. 1 seed Minnesota Lynx in a three-game first-round series that opens Sunday in Minneapolis isn’t in the cards.

Golden State is 0-4 against the Lynx this season, including two losses in the last week and a half. Only Thursday’s season finale was truly a blowout. It was a 19-point loss and the Valkyries’ worst shooting performance of the season, yet they were still within 4 points near the end of the third quarter.

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Golden State’s margin for error will be razor-thin against a Minnesota team that is experienced and skilled on both ends of the floor. Winning a three-game series against the Lynx, who many consider a title favorite, will require the Valkyries to play nearly perfect basketball.

“We know every single team in this league is beatable,” said Golden State guard Veronica Burton, the AP Most Improved Player. “We can compete with anyone, and when we’re doing what we talked about doing, when we’re connected and on the same page, for sure we’re confident. We brought it to 4 [points on Thursday] and we shot absolutely terribly. So we know that we’re right there and the playoffs are a clean slate.”

The roadmap to a different outcome in the playoffs is clear for Golden State.

Three-point shooting. Thursday’s 3-for-27 performance from beyond the arc was an aberration for the Valkyries, but anything less than double-digit threes likely isn’t going to get it done against the WNBA’s best offensive team. Getting forward Cecilia Zandalasini back in the lineup after she missed nine games with a calf injury is a boost. Zandalasini is shooting 40.7% from three this season, and forward Iliana Rupert has hit 20 3-pointers in her last eight games. An ankle injury Rupert sustained near the end of Thursday’s game isn’t likely to keep her out of the lineup.

An answer for Minnesota star Napheesa Collier. A lot of teams would like that, of course. But Collier, who has averaged 21.3 points in four games against Golden State, has burned the Valkyries in a way that they have largely avoided with some of the league’s other top scoring threats. But focusing on Collier in the frontcourt leaves the Valkyries vulnerable to the likes of guards Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman. So the Valkyries have lots of tough choices to make on defense.

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The health of guard Tiffany Hayes. Against a team as potent on both ends of the floor as Minnesota, the Valkyries need their most experienced player on the floor, a player who can create and defend. Hayes’ absence since Aug. 22 has been felt in the Valkyries’ backcourt depth, particularly over the last three games as Burton has had little break from running the offense. And Hayes averaged 16 points in two games against the Lynx in June and July. But after missing eight games, the playoffs are a tough place to shake off the rust.

Home(ish) court is a must-win. “Ballhalla” is moving 45 miles down the road to the SAP Center in San José for the Valkyries’ lone home game in this series. The arena will undoubtedly be full when Golden State takes the floor on Wednesday night. The Valkyries will have to adapt quickly to a new environment because Game 2 is a must-win to pull off the upset.

The bench needs to be there. Golden State’s bench has come through all season. It’s averaging 24.3 points per game, which is third-best in the WNBA. Monique Billings, Carla Leite, Kate Martin, Laeticia Amihere and Zandalasini — perhaps even Kaitlyn Chen — need to be ready to come in and provide offensive help.

“I think the stuff we could fix is in our control,” guard/forward Kaila Charles said, “if we get the extra stops, if we get the rebounds, if we just hit a few more shots. … It’s a good learning curve to see the stuff they run, how we can defend it and how we can manipulate the game to our benefit.”

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Head coach Natalie Nakase will embrace the underdog mentality — and the assumption that her team can’t win. It’s not that big of a change.

“I just like winning. I like to do whatever it takes to win. And at this moment we’re facing Minnesota,” Nakase said. “We just played them. I take that as a positive because you just got reps of what works, what doesn’t. …

“I just try to pick all the positives, underdog or not. I mean, I’ve been an underdog my whole life. But I think all of our players have that type of mentality. I think they like to be doubted, they like to prove people wrong, and I think that’s what’s connected us. I think that’s kind of the beauty of our season.”