After rocky start, Duke rights the ship with shake-ups and step-ups

The Blue Devils were on a skid, having lost both of their Thanksgiving-week games in Las Vegas — admittedly against No. 2 South Carolina and No. 3 UCLA — as well as matchups against No. 6 LSU and South Florida. That’s all without mentioning the disaster of a game that Duke played against West Virginia earlier in the season, losing to a severely limited Mountaineer squad that was down to just five players after halftime. Put simply, things didn’t look good for a team that had polled with the best in the country during the preseason. 

Now, though, the Blue Devils have turned things around. They’re undefeated since the start of ACC play and on an eight-game winning streak. Admittedly, those victories haven’t come against much top-of-the-line conference talent — the only opponent ranked at the time Duke played it was No. 23 Notre Dame. Still, it seems that head coach Kara Lawson has managed to turn her ship around. 

With only one currently-ranked opponent remaining on the Blue Devils’ schedule, they will need to continue winning in order to build a resume and potentially even make a case for hosting the first two rounds of the NCAA Tournament. But still, this team is playing its best basketball of the season when it matters. With players coming in off redshirt seasons and returners starting to blossom, it seems like Duke might be peaking at the right moment. Until the postseason comes, it’s worth taking a look at what has gone so right for the Blue Devils lately as they stare down their remaining ACC opponents. 

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Nelson steps in

Looking at the stat sheet, the one concrete change Lawson made at the start of this winning streak was the decision to bench perennial starter Jadyn Donovan in favor of Maryland transfer Riley Nelson. The choice likely made sense to those who watched the games — while Donovan had continued to play excellent defense, she struggled more and more to score. Perhaps it was the position Lawson’s schemes were putting Donovan in, often seeing her rotate to the corner instead of driving to the basket, or maybe it was just a mental block. Either way, it was clear that the junior, after starting every game in her first two years with the Blue Devils, needed a break. She was scoreless in her last five games before an injury against South Dakota State on Dec. 18.

“Yeah, we want [Donovan] to continue to be aggressive, and we want her to look for opportunities to score the ball. …She’s got to do that for us.” Lawson said after Duke’s 70-54 win against Virginia Tech. “You can’t play four on five in basketball. You have to have all five players have the ability to score. And Jadyn has shown that in her career at Duke, her freshman and sophomore years. And so we’re going to keep encouraging her to be aggressive, because she is a capable offensive player”

Nelson, on the other hand, was a bit of an unknown quantity to start the season, having played just a few games with the Terrapins as a freshman before transferring to Duke and redshirting for the entirety of her second year. While she performed well as a bench piece earlier in the year, Nelson really came into her own after earning a starting nod. She posted 20 points in a New Year’s Day blowout of Boston College, and scored 11 in Duke’s win over Notre Dame.

Nelson appears to slot in better to the same role that Donovan played for the first part of the campaign, shooting 37.7% from beyond the arc and providing some of that same length that allowed Donovan to be such an effective defender in Lawson’s scheme. As Nelson continues to reacclimate to the game after more than a year off the court, she may continue to improve as well. 

“Yes, I think it’s just the confidence, getting some games under my belt,” Nelson said after the win against the Eagles. “I think that’s what’s shown in the past couple games.”

It remains to be seen what will happen once Donovan returns from her injury, but as of right now Nelson has made a very strong case for remaining in the starting lineup. Elsewhere in the guard room, it remains to be seen what will happen to top-rated recruit Emilee Skinner. Skinner has been sidelined with what is believed to be a leg injury for nearly the entire season, and it was reported that she is now planning to redshirt and preserve her eligibility for the years to come. As a result, Duke’s backcourt still looks a little thin, but better now with Nelson stepping up. 

Roberson and Fournier find their chemistry

It should come as a surprise to very few that sophomore forward Toby Fournier has continued to stand out for the Blue Devils. After an outstanding freshman year as a potent bench weapon, Fournier transitioned to a starting role and has since performed similarly well. She’s averaging 17.7 points per game with 2.3 blocks and 7.3 rebounds to round her out. Fournier has also found herself double-teamed more often this year, and her passing has improved as a result. She’s up to 1.2 assists per game from .4 last year. 

Even more notably, though, has been the emergence of redshirt freshman forward Arianna Roberson. After missing all of her first year in Durham with a knee injury, Roberson’s impact has become more and more tangible as the games have gone on. A 6’4 center with a 3-point shot that stretches the floor, Roberson has brought scoring impact to a team has historically struggled on the offensive end. 

“Ari has great deal of confidence, and what I’ve liked is you get a chance to see all of her skills on full display. There’s a lot to her game, and I think as she plays more and more, everyone will see that” Lawson said after a mid-December win over Belmont. “And then you can see the versatility on full display, not only on offense, but defense. She can switch and guard the perimeter, and she has 3-point range. She can make that very easily with time and space. And so she provides some diversity to the type of players that we have on the court.”

Since the start of conference play, Roberson has become especially potent in combination with Fournier. Lawson’s offense utilizes ball screens that create opportunities for passing down low, and with two capable bigs that can pass, post up or shoot from behind the arc, the duo is difficult for most defenses to handle. As they’ve gotten more comfortable with each other, their distribution abilities have improved — and the results have been clear. Roberson and Fournier posted 20 and 12 points, respectively, in Duke’s recent narrow win against Cal. Forward Delaney Thomas added 20 of her own, further solidifying the Blue Devil frontcourt as a formidable one. 

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Broadly, the team’s overall cohesion has made a leap. Maybe that’s because of new players, maybe a slightly different scheme. Either way, things have gotten much better for Lawson’s group.

“Having your team as your support system is really important. And I think that’s what we’ve been striving for,” Fournier said after a win against Syracuse Dec. 28. “At the beginning of the year, it’s hard because there are new people. It’s a fresh year, so it’s harder to have that connection … and I think we’re really getting into our rhythm now.”

Looking ahead

There are spots bright and dark alike for Duke right now. Donovan’s injury and struggles certainly haven’t helped the team, neither do Skinner’s health concerns. Elsewhere, though, players have stepped up where they are needed. While most of the returners — guards Ashlon Jackson and Taina Mair, Fournier and others — have been relatively consistent, it’s been the new names that have stepped up. Roberson and Nelson, both coming back from injury, have only improved as the season has gone on. Nelson’s shift into a starting role has addressed concerns about a struggling offensive unit, while Roberson provides some much-needed spark on both ends coming off the bench. 

If the Blue Devils can keep this up, (which has admittedly been difficult; two of their last three games have been decided late in the fourth quarter) they could be a serious threat come the postseason. Despite an ugly start to the season, it seems like Lawson has her team moving in the right direction. Now, it remains to be seen whether this team can actually hang with the best in the country. The first chance to prove that won’t be for a few more games, when Duke travels to take on No. 9 Louisville Feb. 5.