January 21, 2026
Women’s Basketball Bracketology: Some shuffling at the top
After South Carolina and Texas duked it out last week, the No. 1 seeds got mixed around a bit
And then there were two. With Texas Tech taking its first loss of the season, we have just two undefeated teams left: UConn, the reigning national champion, and Vanderbilt. We also had one of the marquee matchups of the season between two projected No. 1 seeds in South Carolina and Texas, which was won by the Gamecocks. All of this factored into another edition of bracketology in what has been a wild season of college basketball.
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We will start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket:
UConn dominated Notre Dame in the second half on Monday in what is most likely its last major test before the NCAA tournament. They remain the No. 1 overall seed, but behind them, we had some movement. South Carolina’s win over Texas on Thursday pushed the Gamecocks ahead of the Longhorns. However, they both got jumped by UCLA, who dominated Maryland on Sunday afternoon. The Bruins lead the country with 10 quad one wins, and mind you, they’ve only played 18 games.
When it came down to the last No. 4 seed, Tennessee just edged out Baylor. The Volunteers have yet to lose an SEC game, starting 5-0 in conference play. They haven’t played a gauntlet of a conference schedule so far, but they picked up a big win over Alabama on Sunday, which helped them grab the last hosting spot. They have big games against Kentucky and Mississippi this week, which will go a long way in seeing if they can hold that spot.
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The bubble didn’t change too much, this time. The biggest difference saw Arizona State drop down into the last four in and Mississippi State move up into the last four byes after the Bulldogs got a big win against Kentucky on Sunday. We also saw South Dakota State, a perennial darling of the tournament over the last few years, fall into the first four out after their home loss to North Dakota State.
The biggest riser of the bracket over the past week was Ohio State. The Buckeyes have been a bit of a surprise this year after there were questions about the team coming into the season. However, they’ve only lost two games so far, both of which have come to projected No. 1 seeds in my bracket. The Buckeyes moved up to a solid No. 4 seed and have room to continue to improve their seed line with a ton more games against quality opponents in the Big Ten.
Once again, Iowa State took the biggest tumble of the week. The Cyclones have been in a free fall since the calendar turned to 2026. They’ve now lost five in a row, including a 28-point loss at Oklahoma State on Sunday. The Cyclones are one of the last teams projected into my field, and if they don’t get it turned around soon, they may fall out altogether.
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5 games that will have the greatest impact on the bracket over the next week:
Arizona State vs West Virginia, Jan 21
Kentucky vs Tennessee, Jan 22
Texas Tech vs Utah, Jan 24
Vanderbilt vs South Carolina, Jan 25
Ohio State vs Iowa, Jan 25
2 mid-major games that will most impact the bracket over the next week:
Davidson vs Rhode Island, Jan 21
Gonzaga vs Oregon State, Jan 22
Bracketology methodology
Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket:
- The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with the SEC and Big 10 in my bracket).
- Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other once more than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep conference teams away from each other until the Elite Eight.
- In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I did not have to do that in this projection.
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Bracket breakdown:
Multi-bid conferences:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 8
Big 12: 8
Big East: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Last four in:
Arizona State
Richmond
Utah
Virginia
First four out:
Clemson
Miami
South Dakota State
BYU
Next four out:
Seton Hall
Virginia Tech
Davidson
Florida
Next Update: January 28th
Written by Matthew Walter
Matthew Walter covers the Las Vegas Aces, the Pac-12 and the WCC for the Next. He is a former Director of Basketball Operations and Video Coordinator at three different Division I women's basketball programs.
