2025-26 Women’s Basketball Bracketology: Consistency is key

We will start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket:

UConn dominated Tennessee in the second half in their final non-conference matchup before the tournament. The Huskies have looked unbeatable pretty much all year, and that is why they are the No. 1 overall seed. UCLA beat Iowa in their biggest test of Big Ten play so far, and continues to impress with their 12 quad-one wins. South Carolina and Texas continue to have a razor-thin margin, but the Gamecocks have played a tougher SEC schedule so far, and that edges them this week over the Longhorns.

Welcome back to hosting, Mississippi, which got an impressive win midweek against Vanderbilt, which helped propel them up into the final hosting spot. Mississippi already has four wins against projected tournament teams so far in SEC play. It also helped them that both Tennessee and Maryland lost all their games this week.

The bubble remained the same this week, with all four teams going a combined 7-1. The lone loss was Utah at BYU, but they beat a very good West Virginia team during the week, which helped keep them in the field. The biggest change in the bubble is welcoming Fairfield to the outside looking in. The Stags lost to Quinnipiac during the week, and they are no longer the projected automatic qualifier from the MAAC. The Stags probably can’t avoid another loss the rest of the season if they want to get into the tournament.

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The biggest riser of the bracket over the past week was USC. The Trojans may have saved their season with their home win over Iowa during the week. They were just last week’s biggest faller with the struggles they’d had as of late. However, the win over the Hawkeyes was just what the doctor ordered, and it moved them up two seed lines.

The biggest faller of the week was Fairfield. The Stags’ loss to Quinnipiac knocked them from a 10 seed into the first four out. The Stags have some things out of their control with the conference they play in, but their quality non-conference schedule will keep them in the conversation for a tournament spot. However, when you play in a mid-major league, your margin for error is incredibly thin.

5 Games that will have the greatest impact on the bracket over the next week:

LSU vs. Texas, Feb. 5

Duke vs. Louisville, Feb. 5

Iowa State vs. Utah, Feb. 7

UCLA vs. Michigan, Feb. 8

Oklahoma vs. Vanderbilt, Feb. 9

One Mid-Major Game that will most impact the bracket over the next week:

George Mason vs. Richmond, Feb. 7

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Bracketology methodology

Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket:

• The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with the SEC and Big 10 in my bracket).
• Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other once more than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep conference teams away from each other until the Elite Eight.
• In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I did not have to do that in this projection.

Bracket breakdown

Multi-Bid conferences:

Big Ten: 12

SEC: 11

ACC: 9

Big 12: 7

Big East: 2

Atlantic 10: 2

Last four in:

Virginia Tech

Clemson

Utah

Richmond

First four out:

Virginia

Arizona State

Fairfield

Colorado

Next four out:

BYU

Miami

South Dakota State

Seton Hall

Next Update: Feb. 11