January 7, 2026

2025-26 Women’s Basketball Bracketology: new year chaos

Utah's going up, Notre Dame is dropping in latest bracketology

A projected bracket for the 2026 NCAA Tournament. Texas, Connecticut, South Carolina and UCLA are the No. 1 seeds in the 68-team tournament. Oklahoma, Kentucky, Michigan and Maryland are the No. 2 seeds.

The glasses are in the garbage, and work has begun again, which means the New Year has come and gone. (Editor’s note: I keep mine in a holiday box and reuse!) School is starting again soon, but conference play has been in full effect for just over a week now. We’ve seen the number of undefeated teams drop drastically since conference play began, and that has vastly shaken up the postseason picture. Here is my fourth bracketology update of the season, following a topsy-turvy start to the new year.

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We will start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket.

The top of the bracket remains the same, with all four of the one seeds winning all their games since Christmas. Texas got a scare from Mississippi but held on for the win. UConn dominated Iowa and every Big East team it’s played. UCLA walloped its crosstown rival, and South Carolina hasn’t had a single-digit contest since early December.

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When it came down to the last hosting spot, a last-minute upset threw a wrench into it. USC was all set to be the final No. 4 seed, but they lost to Oregon on Tuesday night, which created the path for West Virginia to grab that hosting spot. North Carolina was close, but West Virginia’s win over Duke is the only quad-one win either team has, and thus put the Mountaineers ahead of the Tar Heels.

The bubble is once again overrun with ACC and Big 12 teams. Utah picked up a big win over TCU over the weekend to put itself on the right side. BYU’s loss on Tuesday night against Arizona pushed them onto the wrong side and lifted Clemson into the field. The Tigers 15-point win over Miami on Sunday gave them the nod over both the Hurricanes and Spiders for the final at-large spot.

The biggest riser of the bracket over the past two weeks was Duke. The death of the Blue Devils had been greatly exaggerated. Wins over Notre Dame and Syracuse since Christmas have Duke not only back in the tournament but safely in at a No. 9 seed.

The biggest dropper since our last update is Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish have lost back-to-back games since the calendar turned to 2026. Losing to Duke on the road is understandable, but the loss at Georgia Tech is really going to hurt Notre Dame. A quad-three loss is something not usually tied to a Fighting Irish resume, but it will be this year.

Five huge-impact games this week

Michigan State vs Washington, Jan 8

Texas vs LSU, Jan 11

Ohio State vs Maryland, Jan 11

Oklahoma vs Kentucky, Jan 11

Syracuse vs Virginia, Jan 11

Mid-major game that will most impact the bracket this week

Richmond vs Davidson, Jan 10

Bracketology methodology

Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket.

The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with the SEC in my bracket).
Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other once more than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep conference teams away from each other until the Elite Eight, with two exceptions, both of which would require an upset win.
In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I had to bump Tennessee up one seed line to a five and Nebraska down to a six to comply with bracket rules.

Bracket breakdown

Multi-Bid conferences

Big Ten: 12

SEC: 11

ACC: 9

Big 12: 8

Big East: 2

Last four in

Mississippi St

Virginia

Utah

Clemson

First four out

Miami

Richmond

BYU

North Dakota State

Next four out

Davidson

Kansas

Seton Hall

Marquette

Next Update: Jan 14

Written by Matthew Walter

Matthew Walter covers the Las Vegas Aces, the Pac-12 and the WCC for the Next. He is a former Director of Basketball Operations and Video Coordinator at three different Division I women's basketball programs.