The Dream’s revival: How Karl Smesko turned belief into a franchise record and a Coach of the Year push

But inside Gateway Center Arena that Saturday, everyone knew things were different. Smesko’s milestone wasn’t ordinary. It was historic. As fans rose to their feet, red flags whipped through the air and applause cascaded down to the floor. Then came the announcement: Atlanta had just set a new franchise record with its 24th win, toppling the reigning WNBA champions in the process.

The Liberty were shorthanded, missing Nyara Sabally, Breanna Stewart, Isabelle Harrison and Sabrina Ionescu, but the feat still resonated. For Atlanta, it meant surpassing the 2018 Dream team that won 23 games under first-year coach Nicki Collen — now at Baylor — and advanced all the way to the conference finals before falling to the Washington Mystics, who went on to lose to the champion Seattle Storm.

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Smesko didn’t arrive in Atlanta thinking about records. In his first year, the goal was never chasing history. It was building a team he believed could win. Still, as the Dream stacked victories, he knew they had something special. Breaking the franchise’s single-season mark wasn’t the plan, but he certainly isn’t complaining about the result.

“It’s hard in this league to know who’s even going to be playing,” Smesko said after the Dream’s victory against the Liberty. “Getting everybody healthy throughout the whole season isn’t easy. … I thought, ‘If healthy, we had a team that could compete with anybody. If you have that type of team, you should get wins along the way and hopefully be in a good position once the playoffs come.”

For Smesko, that win carried weight far beyond his calm exterior. The former Florida Gulf Coast architect and coach with a reputation for data-driven basketball — built on floor spacing, efficient shot selection and a barrage of threes — had done more than just beat New York. He had guided Atlanta (26-14) past another of the league’s elite teams, a hurdle the Dream stumbled over earlier in the season. It was another statement, another layer to his growing case for this year’s WNBA Coach of the Year award.

Turning the Dream around

For perspective, of Atlanta’s 14 losses this season, 11 have come by eight points or fewer and four of those were decided by only two points or less. Even more telling, seven of those setbacks were against playoff-bound teams, including two against the Liberty.

“There’s a lot of firsts that just got thrown at him this season,” Dream general manager Dan Padover told The Next. “I think he’s done a really good job of taking notes and learning a little bit more each day to help him and his team be in the best possible position to win and compete.”

Through 40 games last year, Atlanta limped into the postseason. The Dream clawed their way to the No. 8 seed, clinching the final playoff spot with three straight wins — including a finale over the Liberty — despite a season riddled with injuries. It marked back-to-back Atlanta playoff berths for the first time since the 2013 and 2014 seasons, but the run ended quickly. New York bounced Atlanta in the first round, and the numbers behind last season played a big part in the reason why. The Dream finished 11th in offensive rating, last in effective field-goal percentage, next-to-last in three-point shooting and near the bottom in attempts from deep.

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This season has been a different story. The Dream have climbed into the league’s upper tier, ranking fifth in points per game, third in points allowed, and second in both offensive and defensive rating. They’re shooting 51.8 percent inside the arc, and their stars — Rhyne Howard, Allisha Gray and Brionna Jones — became All-Stars once again. That’s why Smesko, the Bath Township, Ohio, native whose players teasingly call “Big Wheeze”— a nod to the quirky “Carl Wheezer” from Jimmy Neutron — has quickly become a frontrunner for Coach of the Year. In just his first season, he’s turned the Dream into one of the league’s most dangerous and fundamentally sound teams.

“I keep him young,” Howard said with a laugh about Smesko’s nickname after the Dream’s victory against the Chicago Sky on June 13. “He’s not emotional, but getting him to laugh, getting him to relax and have a good time.”

Smesko hasn’t shown much emotion. The rare exception came after Atlanta’s win against New York, when he leaned into the team’s trademark celebration — “W’s in the chat” — drawing laughs from his players. Mostly, though, he has kept his focus fixed on the climb: making sure the Dream sharpen their play, finish strong, and secure the best possible seed heading into the postseason. A WNBA title in Year 1 remains the mission.

As for Coach of the Year chatter? That hasn’t been his priority. Still, the endorsement from one of his own stars spoke volumes, a clear message that the locker room believes he’s earned it.

“[Smesko] is probably gonna say, ‘Oh, I don’t care about it,’” Dream forward Naz Hillmon said after the team’s win against New York. “He’s definitely deserving of being in those [COY] conversations, if not the top, in my opinion. We were ranked by some people [in the media] as number seven. … I think that speaks to what he’s done to make this team what it is. You see a lot of players having career highs … adding more things to their game. We’ve had injuries. You can go down the list.”

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Hillmon, in the running for Sixth Woman of the Year, nailed it. Her read on her coach’s mindset couldn’t have been more on point.

“It’s nice,” Smesko told reporters postgame with a slight smile about Hillmon’s endorsement. “I’m glad she said it. … To me, the most important Coach of the Year is whoever wins the [WNBA] championship. The other thing’s nice. It’s a title. It’s probably a contract bonus for most people. But to me, the [COY] is whoever gets their team through the playoffs and holds the championship trophy at the end.”

Still, as a first-year coach, Smesko not only eclipsed the franchise’s single-season wins mark, but he ensured the Dream a regular-season finish above .500, also the first time it has been done in seven seasons. Since the All-Star break, Atlanta has raised the bar even higher, boasting the league’s best defensive rating while posting the second-best marks in both offensive rating and net rating, trailing only the Minnesota Lynx. Even more, the Dream have stacked statement wins all season, taking down six of the league’s top eight playoff teams — not just once, but twice — toppling the Lynx, the Liberty, the Phoenix Mercury, the Seattle Storm, the Golden State Valkyries and the Indiana Fever. They’ve done it all while navigating injuries to key players, proving depth and resilience.

Striving for the top

Only two coaches in Dream history have ever earned the league’s top sideline honor. Marynell Meadors claimed it back in 2009, just her second year on the job. Nearly 10 years later, Collen followed suit in 2018, setting the standard in her very first season. Now, Smesko has a chance to join an exclusive group.

The history of the award makes the opportunity even more striking. In the 28 years since the WNBA introduced Coach of the Year, only nine coaches have walked away with the hardware in their first season coaching that respective franchise. The last to do it was Stephanie White with the Connecticut Sun in 2023.

For Smesko, chasing that kind of recognition isn’t the point. But the possibility hangs there, another sign of just how quickly he’s left his mark.

“In one year, for him to take a team and become a top team, that’s unbelievable to me,” Padover told The Next. “I can’t remember a jump like that in recent history when a new coach comes in. … To get a team to be a potential top four [postseason] team in this league is so hard. It takes some franchises a decade to try to get there, and some still can’t get there. … It’s unbelievable.”

Morgan Shaw Parker, Atlanta’s chief operating officer, agrees: “Karl [Smesko] brings out things in our players — both on the court and personally — that they never knew they were capable of,” she told The Next in June. “He is one of the preeminent basketball minds in the entire industry. His strategy is smart. It’s inclusive, it’s fun, and the [players] are having fun.”

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Like the Dream’s rise this season, Smesko’s path to Coach of the Year won’t come uncontested. The award is among the league’s most coveted, and the competition is steep.

In Golden State, Natalie Nakase has turned the expansion Valkyries into one of the WNBA’s biggest surprises. A former Las Vegas assistant who learned under Becky Hammon, Nakase has guided the league’s newest franchise to the best inaugural season in WNBA history. Her team has also endured its share of adversity. The Valkyries lost Kayla Thornton to a season-ending knee injury just 22 games into the season. Monique Billings was sidelined for more than a month with a sprained ankle. Yet, the Valkyries never folded. Instead, they’ve planted themselves firmly inside the playoff picture, holding the No. 6 spot as the regular season winds down.

Then there’s Cheryl Reeve, the benchmark. The Lynx coach has lifted the Coach of the Year trophy four times already — more than anyone in league history — and she has Minnesota back on top once again. With MVP contender Napheesa Collier leading a balanced roster, the Lynx shattered their own franchise record with 32 wins, claiming the No. 1 seed for the first time since 2017, the year they captured their fourth championship. Reeve’s résumé already reads like a dynasty in motion, but her 2025 campaign adds another chapter. Only once before has she been named Coach of the Year in the same season she lifted the trophy. This fall, she has her team in position to do both.

The 2025 season tipped off with eight new faces pacing the sidelines, seven of them first-time head coaches. Most are still finding their footing. But in Atlanta, Smesko has done more than adjust. He’s ignited a franchise. In one season, he has the Dream not only winning but thriving, and the way he has rejuvenated the team has some of those coaches saying he firmly belongs in the Coach of the Year conversation.

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“Karl’s had a fantastic year,” Dallas Wings coach Chris Koclanes said ahead of the Wings’ recent contest against the Dream. “He stayed true to who he is, shoot a lot of threes, spread the floor out, attack you off the bounce, put pressure on the paint, and then kick it out and shoot a bunch of threes. … [He] demanded what he wants and what he cares about. And so they play a fun style. They’ve got good pieces. Much credit to Karl for the product that they’ve been able to put out on the floor.”

Rachid Meziane, Connecticut’s coach, echoed the same belief.

“He’s doing a great job with Atlanta,” Meziane said ahead of the team’s loss to Atlanta on Monday. “A lot of their players are playing great because he knows how to use his players. That’s one of the main jobs of working as a coach. … I like how they play, strong balance inside out. They are playing with a lot of confidence. … Congratulations to him for what he’s doing.”

Backing their guy

With three games left and the Dream pushing for the No. 2 seed, one thing remains clear. The locker room is all in on Smesko. His players don’t just see him as a frontrunner for Coach of the Year. They trust him to aid in improving their skills individually as well as pushing the team toward a deep playoff run and a real shot at chasing a WNBA title.

“Absolutely,” Dream guard Maya Caldwell said about her approval of Smesko becoming COY ahead of the Dream’s recent clash against the Aces. “I’m sure he has everybody’s vote, everybody with some sense.”

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Dream rookie guard Te-Hina Paopao also didn’t hesitate in her admiration for Smesko.

“He [Smesko] just lets us hoop for real,” she said. “We play freely. He has confidence in us. He has trust in us, and we just go out there and play our hardest.”

With the postseason on deck and history already theirs, the Dream stride into September with a belief as steady as their coach’s demeanor. Under Smesko, they see a future still unfolding, one that could add not only a deep playoff run, but also one of the league’s most coveted honors to the franchise’s growing story.