The anatomy of Atlanta’s surge — how the Dream have become a real threat

The Dream carried momentum with them too. They had knocked off the league-leading Minnesota Lynx and — at the time — the third-place Phoenix Mercury in the span of a week, proving they could hang with the WNBA’s elite teams. That surge made the second clash against the expansion Valkyries feel like a chance for Atlanta to keep rolling and to send fans into the month of August with another victory to cheer about.

However, as the crowd’s chants echoed throughout the arena, things didn’t go as planned. Golden State controlled the first three quarters of the contest that included a third quarter where the Valkyries piled on 30 points, tying the most Atlanta had allowed in the third quarter this season and a mark the Dream hadn’t given up since opening night against the Washington Mystics. By the final buzzer, the scoreboard read 77-75 in favor of the Valkyries. 

Dream coach Karl Smesko didn’t mince words. He sat in front of reporters after the loss and called it “disappointing.” He pointed to the lapses that had cost his team, citing their struggles to defend ball screens and their inability to string together consistent stops through the first 30 minutes of the contest. Dream guard Jordin Canada, who poured in a team-high 21 points, echoed her coach’s assessment.

“… We were very lackadaisical on the defensive end,” Canada said after the Dream’s loss to Golden State. “We allowed them [Valkyries] to get a couple of offensive rebounds, which allowed them to get some kick out threes. … It was just us not being aggressive to start [the game]. … For the first three quarters, we were like that.”

Still, the Dream held firm in the fifth spot in the standings, trailing only the Seattle Storm, the Mercury, the New York Liberty and the Lynx. But with the schedule serving up a quick turnaround — the second night of a back-to-back and their last such stretch of the season — the team had to reset, and fast. Their next challenge would come against the Dallas Wings, a squad that had then only managed eight wins but wouldn’t back down. 

It was a tug-of-war type affair, producing 22 lead changes and 14 ties and a contest where every possession mattered and one that tested Atlanta’s focus and grit. With the game hanging in the balance, Naz Hillmon buried a three from deep, a shot that gave the Dream the breathing room they needed and enough points to secure an 88-85 win.

Want even more women’s sports in your inbox?

Subscribe now to The IX Sports and receive our daily women’s sports newsletter covering soccer, tennis, basketball, golf, hockey and gymnastics from our incredible team of writers. That includes Basketball Wednesday from founder and editor Howard Megdal.

Readers of The IX Basketball now save 50% on their subscription to The IX.

“It was kind of a fight till the end,” Smesko said after Atlanta’s win. “…Our team executed down the stretch on [the] last few possessions on defense, forcing tough shots. …Great game winning shot [by Hillmon]. She’s had some big threes for us this year that have won the game.”

Hillmon, who was only 1-of-6 from deep prior to adding a trey ball to her arsenal in Smesko’s first season leading the franchise, agrees: “I was very hesitant my first couple years [in the WNBA] and even in the beginning of the season,” she said. “My teammates… have put so much confidence in me, and it seems to be working.”

Hillmon’s clutch three did more than seal a road win. It vaulted her into the conversation for Sixth Woman of the Year. But more importantly, it gave Atlanta more proof it could finish the kind of tight games that had slipped away earlier in the season. For a team seeking consistency in late-game moments, that night in Dallas felt like a turning point. The Dream made the timely plays they had been missing. The victory lit the spark for what became nearly a month-long stretch of success.

During the Dream’s latest 11-game surge, Atlanta has climbed all the way to second in the WNBA standings; this is no small feat, considering the obstacles the team has navigated. The Dream have juggled injuries to key players, with Canada sidelined (right hamstring) for the last five games. Brittney Griner missed three with a neck injury and Rhyne Howard missed 10 games from mid-July to early August, including four in the 11-game timespan. To keep pace, the Dream leaned on depth, rolling out five different starting lineups in the last 24 days.

“It just shows our resiliency,” Dream forward Brionna Jones said after the Dream’s win against the Mercury on Aug. 1. “It’s the next person up, no matter who’s out. I think we’ve done a great job of playing in the coach’s system.”

Smesko’s arrival in Atlanta brought a reputation for data-driven basketball featuring floor spacing, efficient shot selection and a heavy emphasis on the three-point line. But during the Dream’s latest surge, it’s the defense that has fueled the climb. In the last 11 games, the Dream have cranked up their pressure and turned numbers into results. They jumped from 10th to fourth in the league in steals, averaging 7.5 per game and climbed to third in blocks at 4.3 per game. They’ve smothered opponents on the glass, allowing the fewest second-chance points in the league (8.8) while also holding teams to the second-fewest made field goals (28.3) and the third-lowest shooting percentage overall (42.5%).

Atlanta has also limited opponents to the fewest defensive rebounds (22.7), assists (18.6) and points (72.5) in the league during that span while also giving up the third-fewest threes (32.5%) and steals (6.3). Even more, in seven of their nine recent wins, the Dream kept opponents under 80 points, a formula that has pushed their record to 14-4 this season when they do so. And those victories haven’t come against the bottom-tier teams in the standings. Five of them were earned against teams sitting in the league’s top eight, proof that the Dream’s defensive edge can travel and hold strong against playoff-caliber competition.

“Our defense really fuels us,” Hillmon said after Atlanta’s win against the Liberty on Saturday. “Once we get stops, we’re able to push in transition and just do what we do. … I think that’s when we’re at our best.”

It may be Year 1 for Smesko and the first season with this roster assembled, but the Dream aren’t treating 2025 like a rebuilding project. Their eyes are fixed on a deeper goal, a playoff run that ends on the WNBA’s biggest stage. Atlanta has taken steps in that direction before. 

The franchise snapped a long postseason drought under ex-coach Tanisha Wright, making back-to-back playoff appearances in 2023 and 2024. However, each run ended quickly, first to Dallas in 2023 and then to New York in 2024, both in the opening round. The last time the Dream appeared in the conference finals was 2018, when they pushed the Washington Mystics to five games. That season also produced their highest win total in franchise history until now. With Saturday’s victory against the Liberty, Atlanta set a new bar at 24 wins, rewriting the record book in Smesko’s first campaign.

For the Dream, though, the focus isn’t on milestones. It’s on making those wins count in October. Atlanta assistant Brandi Poole, who helped guide the Connecticut Sun to two finals appearances in 2019 and 2022, sees a clear formula. If Atlanta is going to chase its first WNBA championship, she said, it will come down to their ability to defend at an elite level.

A closer look at Atlanta’s defensive surge reveals a few players who have increased their intensity. At the center of it is Brionna Jones. The four-time All-Star and former Sun standout has raised her averages to 1.3 steals and 1.3 blocks per game — including four swats in Atlanta’s win against Minnesota on Thursday — both an uptick from her season marks of 1.1 and 0.8 during the Dream’s hot stretch. She hasn’t been alone. Guard Allisha Gray has turned up her own defensive pressure, nudging her steals average to 1.3 during this span and slightly above her season pace. Guard Maya Caldwell has carved out her place on that end of the floor too, averaging 1.2 steals compared to 0.9 across the season. 

“I think it’s just the attentiveness to the details on defense,” Jones said about Atlanta’s increased presence on defense. “Throughout this whole season, we’re trying to get better on defense consistently. …Playing the top teams, that’s [defense] that it takes.”

Poole concurs. “With high powered offensive teams like New York and Las Vegas, you have to be able to get stops in this league to win a championship,” she told The Next on Monday after the Dream’s morning shoot-around. “Karl [Smesko] does a good job of teaching the right techniques on how to guard things. The players are starting to buy into the concepts and knowing that when we get a stop it allows us to get out and run in transition.”

Atlanta’s defense may have set the tone for its rise, but the Dream’s offense still drives their ceiling. And Gray has been at the heart of it. On Saturday, she poured in 19 points against the Liberty, shooting 7-of-13 from the field and 4-of-8 from deep as chants of “MVP” rained down from the Gateway Center Arena crowd.

The three-time All-Star has been a steady, relentless two-way force all season, carving out career highs across the board. She leads the Dream in scoring at 18.8 points per game while also logging a team-best 35.1 minutes. Her shot volume has grown too, averaging 13.3 shot attempts a night, including 6.2 from beyond the arc where she knocks down 2.3 on average. She’s also pulling down a career-best 5.4 rebounds with 4.6 on the defensive glass and dishing 3.6 assists per game, according to Her Hoop Stats.

Gray has scored in double figures 36 times this year, and with her four threes against New York, she eclipsed 90 for the season. That milestone put her in rare company, making her only the second Dream player to ever reach it, alongside teammate Rhyne Howard, who hit 99 a year ago. Around the league, only Indiana’s Kelsey Mitchell has matched her. Still, Gray insists the accolades are secondary. For her, the focus remains singular bringing a championship to Atlanta.

“It’s nice to have a career season, but it’s even better when you’re a winner,” Gray said after the Dream’s win on Saturday against the Liberty. “I think I’m more happy about finally being a winner in my career than having a season high in my averages because I ain’t never been this high (in the standings).”

At 30, Gray anchors a Dream squad whose offense has been steady all season, with only minor ebbs and flows. But in the past 11 games, Atlanta’s attack has slightly found a new gear in some areas. The team is drawing more trips to the line, making 14.4 free throws per game — good for third in the league — and converting them at an 81.9% clip, ranking fifth. The Dream are capitalizing on second-chance opportunities too, averaging 12.5 points off the glass, while pushing the pace for 7.8 fast-break points per game and asserting themselves in the paint with 38.5 points inside, fourth best in the WNBA.

“It’s just a matter of sticking with our offensive principles and continuing to grow and learning to play together,” Poole told The Next about the team’s influx in free throws and additional scoring opportunities. “This group was just put together this year. …It starts with our spacing, pace, screen setting and our shot selection. …We have guards that stay aggressive, who get down hill and they are very hard to guard.”

Gray may set the tone but she hasn’t carried Atlanta’s offense alone during this run. Hillmon stepped into the starting lineup on Aug. 1 against Phoenix and has quietly become a double-digit scorer, averaging 10.2 points over the last 11 games. The supporting cast has risen too. Rookie guard Te-Hina Paopao has chipped in 7.5 points per game while sliding into the starting lineup five times, and Caldwell has added 6.6 points while starting seven contests. Forward Nia Coffey has also boosted her production with increased minutes. Their growth hasn’t only filled gaps left from injuries to Howard and now Canada; it’s given the Dream balance and depth.

“[Pao] is just dangerous,” Poole told The Next. “She knows how to get the ball to the right people. She can make open three. So you have to defend her.”

Order ‘Rare Gems’ and save 30%

Howard Megdal, founder and editor of The IX Basketball and The IX Sports, wrote this deeply reported book. “Rare Gems” follows four connected generations of women’s basketball pioneers, from Elvera “Peps” Neuman to Cheryl Reeve and from Lindsay Whalen to Sylvia Fowles and Paige Bueckers.

If you enjoy Megdal’s coverage of women’s basketball every Wednesday at The IX Sports, you will love “Rare Gems: How Four Generations of Women Paved the Way for the WNBA.” Click the link below to order and enter MEGDAL30 at checkout to save 30%!

More specifically, Jones sits second in made field goals in this stretch — versus being tied for second with Howard for the entire season — while Howard (3.9), Jones (2.6), Hillmon (1.7) and Coffey (1.5) have increased their number of made free throws each contest as well. The Dream’s bench production, a unit that’s averaging 18.1 points per contest this season (10th in the league), is averaging 18.6 in the last 11 games that includes four games of 20 or more points from reserves in that timespan. The Dream’s reserve production has also included Griner, who has come off the bench the last seven games since her return to the court and notched three double-digit point totals this month.

“It speaks to the unselfishness of this group that whatever we need them to do for that game, they’re going to do,” Poole told The Next. “Naz is going to contribute what she contributes, whether we have her in the starting lineup or whether we have her coming off the bench. … She’s going to get us extra possessions on the offensive end. She’s going to defend, hit open threes when people choose to double BG.”

Smesko agrees. “I think we’ve been getting really good production from our bench,” he said earlier in August. “[Naz] has been consistent all year long. … From a night-to-night basis, you never know when you’re going to get called for more minutes.”

With seven games left on the schedule, the Dream find themselves on the brink of history. They’re closing in on their first chance to host a playoff series since 2018, when home games were played at Georgia Tech’s McCamish Pavilion. This time, the stage would be Gateway Center Arena; for the franchise, it would mark the first postseason contest ever played in College Park.

The push for the postseason resumes Wednesday and the challenge couldn’t be bigger. Las Vegas, winners of 10 straight, rolls into town with MVP frontrunner A’ja Wilson leading the charge. The Aces have owned the season series so far, including a narrow 74-72 win against Atlanta less than a week ago.

Still, the Dream have built a résumé that proves they belong in the league’s upper tier. They’ve taken down Minnesota, New York, Phoenix, Seattle, Golden State and Indiana at least twice each, all teams in the current top eight. And with just one or two games separating second through fifth place in the standings, every possession in this closing stretch carries weight.

Smesko knows the formula for finishing strong. He’s preached improvement at every turn, but one theme remains constant: if the Dream want to turn this promising regular season into a deep playoff run, their defense has to be consistent.

“… We’re playing well,” Smesko said after Saturday’s win. “There’s probably a handful of other coaches who know their team is playing really well right now too. … It’s hard to get any separation on [any team] because there’s so many that are really putting it together at the right time. It is important to get as many games [wins] at home as you can possibly get and try to keep people healthy as best you can. … You best be playing your best.”

Hillmon agrees. “We are trying to make Atlanta a championship team, a place to be and obviously it starts right now,” the forward said on Saturday. “We do look at these wins and really pride ourselves on them because it’s been a tough season. …You can lose any night, but I think that we’ve done a great job of figuring out ways to win, regardless of who’s on the floor [for us or for the other team]. [This] [regular season] is ordering our steps for what we want to accomplish at the end of the season.”

The IX Basketball, a 24/7/365 women’s basketball newsroom powered by The Next

The IX Basketball: A basketball newsroom brought to you by The IX Sports. 24/7/365 women’s basketball coverage, written, edited and photographed by our young, diverse staff and dedicated to breaking news, analysis, historical deep dives and projections about the game we love.