January 28, 2026
Women’s Basketball Bracketology: A surge by the ACC
The cold weather brought some shake-ups to the schedule and some shake-ups to the bracket
This past week brought a big winter storm to most of the United States. The storm caused power outages and cancelled flights. It also caused many teams to cancel or move their games over the weekend. The storm wasn’t the only chaotic thing that happened this week, as we saw several upsets and the number of undefeated teams dropped to just one after Vanderbilt lost to South Carolina. Let’s look at how all this affected the bracket in this week’s edition of Bracketology.
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We will start at the top and work through some of the key points that led to the shape of this bracket:
UConn continues to dominate the Big East and, therefore, remains the No. 1 overall seed. UCLA remains the No. 2 overall seed after two stellar performances. South Carolina took a loss in overtime on Thursday to Oklahoma. They would have dropped down to fourth if they didn’t bounce back with a drubbing of the previously undefeated Commodores. The Gamecocks’ 6-1 record on the road was what pushed them ahead of Texas, as the margin between the two teams is paper-thin.
Welcome back to hosting Duke. The Blue Devils have rattled off 11 straight wins, reclaiming a top 16 seed behind their resurgence since the calendar turned to 2026. They grabbed my last hosting spot over Kentucky after the Wildcats lost both their games this week, to Tennessee and Georgia, respectively.
We saw a big shakeup in the bubble this week thanks to the play of some ACC teams. Clemson picked up a big road win over Notre Dame on Sunday, which pushed the Tigers back into the field. In their other game of the week, they lost to Virginia Tech. The Hokies have been another hot team, winning five straight games, with victories over Clemson and Syracuse. Virginia Tech’s net rating has increased 13 spots over the last three weeks, and it pushes them back into the field. Arizona State and Virginia were the victims of the success of the other two ACC squads.
The biggest riser of the bracket over the past week was Georgia. The Bulldogs have been a great story so far this season in the SEC. They went undefeated in non-conference play and have already racked up wins against Mississippi and Kentucky since league play began. They moved up one seed line and six overall spots due to their recent success.
The biggest faller of the week was USC. The Trojans have been ice-cold since the new year started, winning just one game in 2026. This past week, they lost two road games to ranked Michigan and Michigan State by a combined 12 points. Those are tough games, but the Trojans have shown an ability to beat teams like that at times this season.
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5 Games that will have the greatest impact on the bracket over the next week:
Iowa State vs Texas Tech, Jan 28
Utah vs BYU, Jan 31
Tennessee vs UConn, Feb 1
Iowa vs UCLA, Feb 1
Michigan vs Michigan State, Feb 1
2 Mid-Major Games that will most impact the bracket over the next week:
San Diego State vs Colorado State, Jan 28
Quinnipiac vs Fairfield, Jan 29
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Bracketology methodology
Here are some basic bracket rules that help influence my bracket:
- The top four seed lines in each region shall be from different conferences unless a conference has more than four teams in the top 16 (making this rule impossible to follow, as is the case with the SEC and Big 10 in my bracket).
- Teams from the same conference shall not be projected to meet until the Elite Eight if they met three times during the regular season, or the Sweet 16 if they met twice. Because we don’t know what will happen in conference tournaments, I am assuming every conference team will face each other once more than what is on their schedule. I was able to keep conference teams away from each other until the Elite Eight.
- In order to comply with bracket rules, it is acceptable to move a team up or down one seed line. I did not have to do that in this projection.
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Bracket breakdown:
Multi-Bid conferences:
Big Ten: 12
SEC: 11
ACC: 9
Big 12: 7
Big East: 2
Atlantic 10: 2
Last four in:
Virginia Tech
Clemson
Utah
Richmond
First four out:
Arizona State
Virginia
Miami
BYU
Next four out:
South Dakota State
Seton Hall
Davidson
Colorado
Next Update: February 4th
Written by Matthew Walter
Matthew Walter covers the Las Vegas Aces, the Pac-12 and the WCC for the Next. He is a former Director of Basketball Operations and Video Coordinator at three different Division I women's basketball programs.
